My casino closest to me has Freebet Blackjack. I know the side bets are ordinarily a bad deal ... but ... I am also starting my card counting journey and I realized that if I have a positive count (assume only partway through a six deck shoe), it means the house will bust a little more often. My mind is going back and forth with the possibilities. Does anyone know if the extra busts are enough to make the side bet worthwhile?
Generally speaking, Blackjack is the type of a casino game where the casino has only a slight advantage over the player. I'm convinced that's the major reason why they came up with the side bets. It helps them to increase the odds in their favour.
I believe when the count is positive, the better strategy is simply increasing your bets instead of start using the side bets. I just need to warn you - the game providers have their own system that helps them to track players and discover patterns that the players use. Such players get flagged and the casino where they play is informed.
I wouldn't say that counting cards online is forbidden (that's also why they mostly use 8 deck shoes and change it after 3-4 decks are played), but they don't like to see any patterns whenever it comes to your regular gameplay.
Well ... many questions (this one included) were in my mind because I knew I had to run an errand out near the local casino (an hour away). I stopped yesterday and finally decided I would just watch and see if I could keep up at live play speed.
The first shoe went slightly negative and stayed there awhile, but I was surprised at how well I kept the count up.
The second shoe never strayed far from zero.
The third shoe went to a True +3 about mid shoe ... and then it got wild. The high cards started pouring out ... lots of blackjacks ... AND three Push 22's.
Okay, I know one night and three observed shoes are hardly anything to go on statistically ... but, I was crunching some means and standard deviations in my head and what I saw seemed to 'mostly' match my prediction ... a high card count (probably 3 or better) can help with the side bet, but when it became quite profitable was when the rapid drop back towards zero happened.
Oh ... and just to note, now that I know what card counting and adjustments to play looks like, I 'caught' another pair also counting. One was counting the other was betting .. and they did quite well on that third shoe. The casino staff did not seem to pay any attention to them ... or to me just staying there watching so long.
I understand what you're saying here, but one night and three observed shoes is a truly limited example. Anyway, I'm still convinced that rather then start playing with the side bets that have naturally lower RTP, it's better to increase your standard bet when the count goes in your favour.
Card counting gives you a slight advantage so I wouldn't use this advantage on side bets that will more likely nullify it. You also need to understand that card counting won't make you rich. It will make you lose slower or in a better case, break even from the long-term perspective.
If the casinos used only 4 decks and played 3 of them before shuffling the cards, that would be a very different case. You could make some real money with card counting this way. But casinos aren't stupid. That's why they play with more decks (especially the live streamed online tables where you can't watch the player physically) and they shuffle the cards more often. So whenever you start getting a slight advantage, the cards are shuffled and you start counting over again.
So I think card counting is something that everyone who loves to play blackjack should include into their gameplay, because it will improve your odds, but it's not a way to become rich.
During the last couple weeks, I have been working the kinks out of this idea.
Simple Summary:
) freebet blackjack is playable
) the Push 22 is playable in the positive range
) the Pot of Gold may be playable with a strong negative range but would not happen often.
Detailed Summary:
) I switched to a slightly more complex counting system that I feel works better for me and my goals
) Freebet blackjack needed an Alternate Optimal Strategy (for example, the standard optimal strategy would seldom split 4's ... but because of the free splits in Freebet, most of the time you will want to split them).
) Strengthen the deviations to reduce hitting with a positive count - - thereby forcing the dealer to bust a little more often.
I will consider describing this in more detail in three weeks - after my next trip to a land based casino. Until then, I am practicing my counting and smoothing out the process.
We really appreciate your insides and hope that many players will find this interesting.🙂
We'll wait for more.
Well, this week I should go on a supply run to the east ... and therefore go by the casino that has the Freebet Blackjack I have been preparing for.
In the meantime:
I have had supply runs in other directions and have glanced into four other casinos ... two were smaller and older, one newer, one older but bigger. They all had normal blackjack tables and were using continuous card shuffler machines ... I am disappointed about the machines. This means across five casinos only 1 table has hand shuffled cards.
I have also practiced about 100 decks of play to test, hone, and better my skills. Surprisingly, the pot of gold is playable, but in the negative range where I expected something, I almost always lost the main bet as the dealer would not bust (how did I miss the obvious?).
They also have craps tables:
What?! I had not considered this game much in the past ... but now I see that the one throwing the dice may have some slight control on the outcome and therefore increase his chances of winning. I am testing my throwing technique to see if I can do anything ... apparently only a small percentage of people can control their throw well enough to get any benefit. I will probably try this in the casino sometime in the coming months just to say I have played it at least once.
Well ... what a long day ... with ups and downs. Everything up until today was practice ... this was my first major outing where I was going to play seriously and with a starter bankroll.
Checking Out New Casinos
I made a last minute decision to drive further and check out 3 more land based casinos. These are more sizable, with a selection of table games. The last one was huge ... but the staff seemed unfriendly. I think all of them had blackjack tables with hand shuffled cards ... but they were also getting into higher minimum bets - meaning I need to build my bankroll to have a reasonable chance there.
Fun Slot Find
I do not like slots, but I have learned to watch certain titles that show a buildup of something (coins, bags of gold, etc) that suggest a bonus round will come soon (in some titles, it is just show and useless - for others, it can be taken somewhat seriously). In one new casino, there was a game I did not recognize, but it had what looked like a really big buildup onscreen - I decided to try it - I think I had no more than $30 in the machine and got the bonus round - an extra win for the day. This seems to happen more often than I expect - people play a machine until it is nearly ready and then leave!?
Disappointing Freebet Table
I did end up on the positive side of things today for my first real try at card counting. But two things made it difficult:
First, were the distractions - especially the casino staff. While just standing around watching and learning (or with short bursts of play), people seem to leave you alone. But to start ongoing play seems to have so many interruptions (especially waitresses asking if I am okay or if I want anything). Also, other players joining or leaving the table, dealers being switched, other staff doing casino business with the dealer, background noises from other players / games, etc. That is something I just have to get used to.
Second, and much worse, this casino (the one closest to my current location and the one I have been learning at) has the strictest limits of any of the 8 casinos I have now checked out. It was not until I sat down to play that I learned that they capped the betting very low on the side bets. One side bet was made almost useless, the other was given a lower cap, but they added a higher multiple for a colored or suited set of cards (something my counting does not predict) - I did get a single suited side bet ( 50 to 1) during play which ensured a profit at that table for the day.
So ... I think I have outgrown the little casino near me ... I will probably have to go to a more distant place ... but I get better gaming selection, and better main bets and side bets for it.
Answer to the Original Post
Yes ... some side bets can be counted and made profitable. For example, one side bet averages once in 14 hands (1 in 14 )and pays 11 to 1. That sounds bad until one finds that 75% of the times it occurs is when the count is positive. Only 1/4 of the times it occurs is when the deck is negative. So, just simply playing that side bet only when the count is positive becomes a winning strategy ... you are betting only half the time but catching 3/4's of the wins.
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